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Housing Market Update | Week of December 8th

The final Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 is this week, with the Fed’s decision on a potential third consecutive rate cut coming Wednesday afternoon. Markets are currently 90% in favor of a cut, a number that’s steadily risen from 30% over the last 3 weeks. Driving expectations of a rate cut are weak labor market data and tame inflation data, both of which we got last week. As economists await the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs reports that were delayed by the government shutdown, more eyes are on the ADP’s private payroll report. That November ADP employment report showed that private employers shed 32,000 jobs, a major miss after expectations of 40,000 jobs created. Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report came right in line with expectations, but the fact that this was the report for September lessened its impact. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Dropped Marginally We had two big economic data releases last week: the ADP’s monthly private payroll report and the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. The ADP report came in significantly lower than expected, posting 32,000 job losses despite predictions of 40,000 jobs created. This -72,000 swing brought the 10-year lower but didn’t sway mortgage rates. The PCE report came in line with expectations on Friday, setting the stage for a Fed rate cut and helping mortgage rates finish the week fractionally lower than where they started. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Be Volatile We have a big week ahead with our final Fed Meeting of the year happening on Wednesday. Currently, markets are giving it a ~90% chance of a cut. Typically, markets will price in a rate cut preemptively, leading to larger drops in the lead-up to a Fed rate cut. However, the 10-year has fluctuated between 4% and 4.1% over the last month and risen to 4.18% this morning. Here are our two most likely paths forward: If the Fed cuts as expected… The 10-year Treasury should stay in roughly the same neighborhood (around 4.0–4.2%), or drop lower if markets read the tone as more dovish than expected. Mortgage rates could see some downward pressure into year-end, but big moves would still depend on what we learn from the delayed November jobs report on December 16 and upcoming inflation releases. For your buyers, that would be a mildly supportive backdrop: not a massive rate drop, but a chance to lock in near recent lows if they’re ready to move in early 2026. If the Fed doesn’t cut… The 10-year yield could move higher in the near term as traders reprice the path of cuts in 2026. Mortgage rates could rise from current levels until the October/November BLS report and other delayed data (like CPI) provide a clearer picture of how much the labor market has actually cooled. The wildcard is that the Fed is making this decision before it sees the official November jobs data, which won’t hit until December 16, so Powell’s press conference guidance will carry even more weight than usual. If you have any questions or want some real-time market analysis from a mortgage expert, follow this link to connect with a UMortgage Loan Originator near you!

Published December 8, 2025

RefinanceLoan TypesMortgage

How to Consolidate Debt Using Your Home Equity

If you’re like many homeowners holding off on refinancing because you don’t want to lose your low mortgage rate, it might be time to look at the bigger picture. Yes, rates aren’t what they were a few years ago. However, credit card debt is at record highs, with average interest rates north of 20%. For households juggling thousands in revolving debt, it’s not the mortgage rate that’s crushing monthly cash flow; it’s those high-interest minimum payments. If you’re feeling financially squeezed, loan products like a cash-out refinance or home equity line of credit (HELOC) can help you take control by using your home’s equity to consolidate debt and reclaim hundreds, sometimes thousands, in monthly breathing room. Brian Cardenas, UMortgage Loan Originator, has been using these strategies to save his clients hundreds of dollars per month. “Money is one of the biggest stressors that we experience in our lives,” said Cardenas. “People are sitting on a ton of equity and a really low interest rate on their home. But they also have this albatross around their neck of this high-interest debt that’s just crushing them.” According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total outstanding credit card debt stood at approximately $1.21 trillion by the end of Q4 2024 – a $45 billion increase from the prior quarter, marking a 7.3% year-over-year rise. At an average APR of 21.37%, as reported by the Federal Reserve in February 2025, that extra debt adds up fast. With a cash-out refi or HELOC, you’re using the money you’ve already invested in your home instead of taking on more debt with high-interest credit cards or personal loans. Here’s how each works, so you know your options before you commit. What is a Cash Out Refinance and How Does One Work? A cash-out refinance allows homeowners to replace their current mortgage with a new loan that provides extra funds by tapping into the equity homeowners have built in their property. Essentially, homeowners can "cash out" a portion of their equity to use as they see fit. This process works by allowing homeowners to borrow against their home equity, which is the difference between the home’s appraised market value and the remaining mortgage balance. By taking out a larger loan, the borrower receives the excess in cash after paying off the original mortgage. For a clearer picture of how this can work, use UMortgage’s Refinance Calculator to see what a cash-out refi might look like for you. See our Cash-Out Refinance loan product page to learn more. What is a HELOC Loan and How Does One Work? A Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) is a loan that lets you borrow against your home’s equity without replacing your existing mortgage. Think of it like a credit card that can be used, repaid, and used again over time. This flexible borrowing option is based on the difference between the home’s current market value and the outstanding mortgage balance. Homeowners can draw from the line of credit as needed, whether for home improvements, debt consolidation, or other significant expenses, and only pay interest on the amount they use. See our HELOC loan product page to learn more. Why You Should Consult with an Expert Before You Act Accessing your equity is just like any other mortgage product: there’s no one-size-fits-all option. That’s why it’s so important to consult with a mortgage expert before you pull the trigger. Working with a UMortgage Loan Originator takes out the guesswork; you’ll have someone in your corner who will present you with all your options so you can make an informed decision that works best for your financial future. “After crunching all the numbers, I found out that there were some considerable savings that we can present to this borrower and help relieve some of the financial burdens that they’re experiencing every single month,” said Cardenas regarding a client whose debt he consolidated earlier this year. “We’re just simply presenting options and letting the consumer decide which, if any of these options, is going to fit their needs best.” If you want to discover your options to consolidate your debt with your home’s equity, or learn more about HELOC rates, fill out this form to connect with a UMortgage Loan Originator in your area. They’ll reach out shortly after you submit to start the process.

Published December 2, 2025

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Kristy Lynn

David is absolutely wonderful! He made this entire process in getting a VA Loan as simple as it could have possibly been for my first mortgage! I have and will continue to recommend him to every Veteran I know. Thank you for everything, David.

Raymond Gummer

I had a difficult mortgage due to county issues etc. Fortunately I also had the best people working for me. You'll never regret a moment having Corey on your side. He's so dedicated to the customer, keeps you up-to-date on everything, and is just one hell of a guy. I have my first home because Corey made it happen, and I couldn't thank him enough. This guy is truly top of his game and I'm blessed to have had him on my team.

Susan Lenhardt

I can't say enough good things about Vinnie. If you want someone that contacts you right away and is there for you and your buyers the entire time through the whole process then you have to talk to Vinnie and see for yourself. My buyers are always very pleased with his professionalism and efficiency. He definitely goes the extra mile for them. They appreciate it and so do I.

Kristy Lynn

Raymond Gummer

Susan Lenhardt

Dominique Bell

Nicole was an absolute pleasure to work with! From the first conversation we had I knew we were going to be a great team for our buyer. She is thorough and communicates each step throughout the entire process up until closing day and she got my buyer $10k in grants! Thank you Nicole for all your hard work!

Yuritt Pasos

Brian and his team are amazing. From the first time I met Brian, he took the time to explain every step of the process with great patience and knowledge. I can honestly say I never expected for this process to feel so easy but Brian made it possible. I will always be thankful for all the support provided.

Meredith Smith

My family had a fantastic experience with Sunnie! Extremely capable and supportive, she helped us through the whole process with ease and a personal touch. We can't thank her enough! Even years after we closed our home, she still provides us with advice and encouragement. Thank you Sunnie!

Miranda Adams

I went through UMortgage using a VA home loan, and the agents I worked with were amazing! They worked all hours to help us get into a house and we were able to close in under 30 days! Amazing communication from both team members involved, Melly and Andy. They really made the difference in us being able to buy our first home. Huge thank you to the UMortgage team!

Nathalie Montes

I’ve had the pleasure of working with Lisa over the past year, and I can confidently say she is one of the best lenders in the industry. Her expertise with a wide range of loan products and dedication to finding the best solutions for my clients truly set her apart. Lisa goes above and beyond to secure excellent rates while ensuring a smooth, professional, and timely process from start to finish. If you’re looking for a knowledgeable, responsive, and trustworthy lender, Lisa is the one to call! I look forward to continuing our partnership and highly recommend her to anyone in need of a top-notch mortgage expert.

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Who is UMortgage?

UMortgage is a national mortgage company that connects you with experienced mortgage brokers in your area. UMortgage's local Loan Officers use UMortgage's vast portfolio of lenders and loan products to ensure you get the most affordable mortgage possible that is tailored to your individual financial needs and homeownership goals.

How does a mortgage work?

A mortgage is a loan used to buy a home, with the house serving as collateral until the loan is repaid. You make monthly payments that cover both the loan amount and interest across the life of the loan, which most commonly spans between 15-30 years.

How do I get pre-approved?

Getting pre-approved with UMortgage is easy! You can get connected with a local UMortgage Loan Officer who will do all the heavy lifting for you by filling out some basic information in this form.

How do I find out how much I can spend on a home?

Your UMortgage pre-approval will provide you with an accurate estimate of your buying power to help you shop for homes within your budget. You can use our free affordability calculator for a more general estimate of your budget.

What are the benefits of working with a UMortgage Loan Officer?

UMortgage's Loan Officers help you access the most affordable mortgage by shopping for the lowest rate on your behalf and offering a mortgage specifically tailored to your financial needs. UMortgage prides itself on its exceptional customer experience—exemplified by our industry-best 95 Net Promoter Score—and guides you through the homebuying process & beyond with care.

What types of mortgages does UMortgage offer?

UMortgage offers expert services for all the major mortgage types: Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, and Jumbo Loans. UMortgage also offers rate & term refinances, cash-out refinances, VA IRRRLs, and FHA Streamlines. Get connected with a UMortgage Loan Officer to learn what type of mortgage will set you up for long-term financial success.

How long does it take to get a mortgage with UMortgage?

Turn times vary from client to client, but UMortgage proudly gets clients from loan application (after you've had an offer accepted on a home) to the closing table in 2 weeks. You can read this blog for more insight into UMortgage's homebuying process.

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