Housing Market Update | Week of July 1st

I hope you had a great Labor Day weekend! Rates are lower to start the week after the markets were closed yesterday, and we have our biggest week for economic data coming up ahead of the September 18 Federal Reserve Meeting. It’s appropriate that we have some pivotal labor data coming down the pike after Labor Day with 4 reports coming in the next 3 days. The Fed is cutting rates on September 18, but it’s now a matter of whether we’ll see a 25bps or 50bps cut. Continued weakness in the labor economy would likely steer us toward the latter. As you know, social media is an excellent way to generate organic leads and grow your business. But with algorithms changing rapidly, it's time to rethink everything you know about social media. On Monday, September 21st, we're hosting a free virtual training session to help you transform your approach to social media and connect more closely with your audience. You can register here to save your spot! Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Continued to Drop We saw rates continue to trickle lower last week as the markets digested Jerome Powell’s speech at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. While this continued drop is catalyzed by the expectations of a rate cut coming later this month, healthier spreads between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury Securities Yield have enabled rates to drop below 7%. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Will Move This week will give us our biggest pieces of economic data ahead of the September Fed Meeting. Starting tomorrow, we will get the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Thursday will provide us with the ADP Employment report & initial jobless claims, and Friday will cap off a big week with the BLS Jobs Report. With a rate cut all but confirmed, it’s now a matter of how many basis points are cut. Inflation is heading lower, so the last domino to fall will be continued weakness in the labor market. If the unemployment rate rises this week, it’ll greatly increase the odds of a 50bps cut later this month and subsequently make rates drop faster this week. Once again, it's time for us to rethink our approach to social media. We're hosting a free training session on September 21st that will give you tools and tips to transform your use of social media. Register here to save your spot!

Rates continued to drop last week as Fed members hinted at the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year if inflation continues to cool. We could see the data that the Fed is looking for as soon as this week. The PPI report will be released Tuesday morning and CPI will come on Wednesday. If CPI falls in with market expectations, expect to see rates drop more this week. Mortgage Rates Last Week Rates Dipped Slightly Last week was relatively quiet from the standpoint of new data points. We had a few Fed presidents speak to the media, including Richmond Fed President, Tom Barkin. He emphasized that we will need to see inflation continue to drop to put a rate cut on the table in September. While the rhetoric from a few Fed members remains hawkish, the 10-year continuing below 4% suggests market confidence in a September rate cut. Mortgage Rates This Week Rates Could Drop Further Quiet weeks for the market are usually followed by large sets of data. This week, we have just that with the PPI inflation report coming tomorrow and the CPI inflation report set to be released on Wednesday morning. Inflation has been a big influencer for the Fed’s decision to adjust its monetary policy. Tomorrow’s PPI report is expected to Year-over-year headline and core CPI inflation numbers are both expected to decrease, which would bring rates lower. As you know, the changes from the NAR settlement go into effect this weekend. You and I both know the value that talented real estate agents offer homebuyers, and I want to help support you as we navigate these changes together! My team is hosting a training session on how to navigate the NAR settlement on Tuesday, August 20th at 1pm ET with a presentation by Skye Michiels, the former Director of Coaching at Compass and a licensed agent for more than 20 years. Skye will share his secrets on how to highlight your expertise and connect with clients in this evolving market. This is one you won’t want to miss, so register here to save your spot!

Great news — mortgage rates are dropping! Last week’s labor data showed the unemployment rate rise to 4.3%. This pushed the bond market down & mortgage rates with it and is the exact kind of data that will push the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate this year. This week is a slower one without much new data on the docket. However, the markets will be watching Fed speakers closely for any insight into their short-to-medium-term plan. Mortgage Rates Last Week Mortgage Rates Dropped We had a stacked schedule of events last week. The July Fed Meeting maintained the current interest rate policy but hinted at rate cuts coming as soon as September, sending rates lower. On Friday, the BLS jobs report showed that the unemployment rate had risen to 4.3%. This is still a historically low unemployment rate but has risen significantly throughout the year, causing markets to react. The bond market dropped to 3.8%, sending mortgage rates down with it. Mortgage Rates This Week Mortgage Rates Could Drop Further We have a relatively quiet week without much new data to chew on. However, we will hear multiple Federal Reserve presidents speak throughout the week. The markets will be watching closely. While a rate cut is expected during the next Fed meeting in September, there’s not much insight into its plan for the remainder of the year. Any hint at a second rate cut before the end of the year could see rates drop further this week. As you know, the changes from the NAR settlement go into effect later this month. You and I both know the value that talented agents like yourself offer homebuyers, and I want to help support you as we navigate these changes together! My team is hosting a training session on how to navigate the NAR settlement on Tuesday, August 20th at 1pm ET with a presentation by Skye Michiels, the former Director of Coaching at Compass and a licensed agent for more than 20 years. Skye will share his secrets on how to highlight your expertise and connect with clients in this evolving market. This is one you won’t want to miss, so register here to save your spot!