Housing Market Update | Week of May 13th
Published: May 13, 2024
Housing Market Update | Week of May 13th
Mortgage Rate Forecast - Week of May 13th
After a pretty quiet week last week, we are back in the thick of the market data cycle with two inflation reports — the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Markets aren’t expecting much progress toward a lower inflation rate; however, recent labor data indicates that we could see continued job market weakness as the year continues.
Mortgage Rates Last Week
Rates Were Steady
As was expected, last week was quiet regarding market data that could impact mortgage rates. We did see continued softening within the labor market as initial jobless claims hit their highest level since last August. The Federal Reserve has emphasized the role that a weak labor market will play in their decision to cut the federal funds rate this year, and if this kind of data continues to trickle in, the odds of rate cuts this year could increase.
This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast
Rates Could Move
This week, we have two big pieces of inflation data with the PPI and CPI inflation reports coming on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Market expectations are that year-over-year inflation will remain at 3.5% in the CPI report, which is the main marker measured by the Federal Reserve. The onus of lower rates remains with labor data, and with some softening in the labor market seen earlier this month plus tighter spreads between the 10-year yield and mortgage rates, momentum could be on our side to see lower rates soon.
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