How the Federal Reserve Impacts Mortgage Rates (And How It Doesn't)

Imagine this: you’re shopping for a mortgage and see one lender advertising a rate that looks way better than the others. You’re excited, until you find out the fine print. That “too good to be true” rate often comes with thousands of dollars in extra fees to secure that rate, known as mortgage points, added to your closing costs. Unless you know how to spot them, you might be walking into a loan that costs you far more than you planned. The truth is that mortgage points aren’t always a bad thing; they can be a smart financial tool in the right situation. But when lenders advertise them without explaining the cost, it’s a red flag that can leave buyers with sticker shock at the closing table. So, in this blog, we’ll explain what it means to buy down your rate, how to spot whether you’re being charged points before you commit to your mortgage, and some situations where you might want to buy down your rate. What Does It Mean to Buy Down Your Mortgage Rate? Buy down points, also known as mortgage points or discount points, are prepaid interest fees that allow you to lower your interest rate. Typically: 1 point = 1% of the loan amount Each point lowers your rate by about 0.25% For example, on a $400,000 loan, one point would cost you $4,000 and reduce your rate by about 0.25%. To lower your rate by a full percentage point, you may be looking at an upfront cost of $16,000. This is precisely why it can be dangerous to take the flashy interest rate you were offered without reading the fine print. Check out our guide covering the Basics of Rate Buydowns for a deeper dive. How to Spot Buy Down Points on Your Mortgage’s Loan Estimate If you want to know whether the “advertised rate” includes points, look closely at Page 2 of your Loan Estimate. Under Section A: Origination Charges, look for a line that says “___% of Loan Amount (Points).” The dollar amount listed there tells you exactly how much you’re paying for points. This quick check helps you see through the marketing and compare offers on an apples-to-apples basis. Read this blog for more tips to understand the fine print of your loan estimate. When You Might Want to Buy Down Your Mortgage Rate While mortgage points might seem deceiving at times, they aren’t always a trap. In the right situations, they can actually help you save money over time. Here are a few cases where it might make sense: Permanent buydown (long-term homeowners): If you plan to stay in your home for many years, paying up front to reduce your rate could save you more in the long run. Temporary buydown (short-term relief): A 2-1 or 3-2-1 buydown lowers your payments for the first couple of years. This is helpful if you expect your income to grow or plan to refinance soon. When someone else is paying: If a seller, builder, or even your lender offers concessions or credits, using them for a rate buydown can be a great deal. “Buydowns are not a one-size-fits-all solution, but they can be a great option for several reasons,” says Matt Gouge, a UMortgage Loan Originator. “Especially now, a high-interest-rate environment favors a buy-down. Affordability is an issue in a lot of markets, so buy-downs are a great transition from somebody who’s renting for $2,500 to swallowing the pill of a $3,800 mortgage.” Why You Might Not Want to Buy Down Your Mortgage Rate On the other hand, points aren’t always worth it. Here’s why: High upfront costs: Especially on larger loans, points can add tens of thousands to your closing costs. Short-term homeowners: If you plan to move in a few years, you may not save enough each month to recoup the upfront costs. False advertising: Some lenders use low advertised rates that only exist because of costly points. When you finally see your Loan Estimate, you realize your cash due at closing is way higher than expected. That’s why it’s so important to review your Loan Estimate carefully and work with a lender who explains the whole picture. Advice for Homebuyers: Focus on the Numbers That Matter Mortgage points aren’t inherently good or bad. It’s about whether they make sense for your situation. The key is transparency. A trustworthy Loan Originator will show you not just the rate, but also the cash due at closing and your monthly payment. Those are the two numbers that matter most when deciding on a mortgage. “Not everyone who buys a home is a financial expert,” continued Gougé. “When you look through your loan estimate, I always show my buyers the numbers that affect them the most: the purchase price, the monthly payment, and the cash to close. That’s what matters.” At UMortgage, our Loan Originators guide you through every option so you can decide whether points are worth it, without surprises. Fill out this form to get connected with a Loan Originator near you who will help you achieve your homeownership dreams without burning a hole in your pocket.

Mortgage rates dropped to a new yearly low after last week’s jobs data highlighted a terrible current state of the labor market. Total nonfarm payroll employment was just 22,000 in August, significantly lower than estimates of +75,000. Overall, job growth has stalled since April. This data all but confirmed that the Fed should cut rates during its September meeting next week. Once these job numbers came in, the 10-year yield plummeted; it peaked last week at 4.3% and has since dropped all the way to 4.05% as of this morning. This took the mortgage rate to a new yearly low with room to fall further. We have our PPI and CPI inflation reports coming this week. So long as inflation doesn’t rise out of control, we could see rates inch closer to 6%. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Dropped Mortgage rates plummeted on Friday after the BLS jobs report came in significantly lower than expected. The headline figure of 22,000 jobs created in August was significantly lower than expectations and brought the unemployment rate up to 4.3%. Not only that, but June’s job figures were also revised lower to a negative number, breaking a 54-month streak of job gains reported by the BLS. The average duration of unemployment rose to 24.5 weeks, which is the highest since April 2022 and suggests that people are having a hard time finding a job once they’re unemployed. The Federal Reserve has long suggested that, to justify a rate cut, the labor market would have to weaken significantly. The jobs data since April has shown little to no growth, which has led most economists to expect at least a 0.25% cut to the federal funds rate next week and between 2 and 3 rate cuts between now and the end of the year. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Have Room to Drop More This week has two primary focuses: the market’s continued reaction to last week’s labor data and a fresh batch of inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. With inflation continuing to highlight the impact of tariffs on the economy, the Fed will keep an eye on these figures. Unless inflation rises out of control, though, these figures shouldn’t have much of an impact on rates. Currently, economists expect core CPI and core PPI to each rise by 0.3%. Now more than ever, your buyers are likely wondering what these headlines mean for them. It’s important to note that mortgage rates usually drop before the Fed cuts rates and tend to rise slightly after the rate cut is official. If you have any questions about the market or want to connect any of your buyers with a UMortgage Loan Originator, follow this link to connect with an expert near you!

If you’ve been watching the news lately, you’ve probably seen a lot of headlines about the Federal Reserve and interest rates. And if you're a homebuyer or a real estate agent working with buyers, you might wonder: Does the Federal Reserve control mortgage rates? It’s a great question. And the short answer is: Not necessarily. The longer answer is a bit more nuanced because while the Fed does play an important role in the economy, it doesn't directly control mortgage rates. What Is the Federal Reserve and the Federal Funds Rate? The Federal Reserve, often referred to simply as the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Its primary job is to keep the economy healthy by keeping inflation in check, supporting the labor economy, and promoting stable & sustainable economic growth. One of the main tools the Fed uses to manage the economy is the Federal Funds Rate. This is the interest rate banks charge one another for overnight loans. While consumers don’t pay this rate directly, it has a ripple effect across the economy, influencing rates on credit cards, auto loans, and savings accounts. How the Federal Funds Rate Influences the Economy When the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate, it becomes more expensive for banks to borrow money. That tends to result in higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in an attempt to slow down inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. When the Fed lowers the rate, borrowing becomes cheaper. This encourages more spending and investment, often a strategy used during economic slowdowns or recessions. Important distinction: The Federal Funds Rate influences the economy, but it does not directly control mortgage rates. Why Mortgage Rates Don’t Always Follow the Fed Here’s where a lot of confusion begins. Many people assume that when the Fed raises interest rates, mortgage rates automatically rise too. But that’s not how it works. Mortgage rates are driven by a different set of economic factors, mainly the bond market. Specifically, rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield and the performance of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Investors who buy these securities care most about the labor market, inflation, the long-term economic outlook, and market stability/instability If inflation is rising or expected to rise, mortgage rates tend to increase. If economic conditions appear weak or uncertain, rates can fall, even if the Fed is raising the Federal Funds Rate. In fact, mortgage rates often move in anticipation of what the Fed might do, not just in response to what it has done. The markets are always looking ahead. What Really Drives Mortgage Rates? Here’s a quick snapshot of the major factors that impact mortgage rates: Inflation: Higher inflation usually = higher mortgage rates. Economic Growth: A strong economy can lead to higher rates. Global Events: Uncertainty (like geopolitical conflict or pandemics) can drive rates lower. Bond Market Demand: More demand for mortgage bonds often = lower mortgage rates. In other words, mortgage rates are influenced by a wide range of factors and are always forward-looking. Want more in-depth analysis of the housing market? Check out our weekly Housing Market Update blog. How Homebuyers and Real Estate Can Navigate the Market For homebuyers and the real estate agents supporting them, the key takeaway is this: Don’t assume that a Fed rate cut means mortgage rates are going down. In some cases, mortgage rates don’t move much on the day that the Fed cuts rates. Most of the time, they will drop in the lead-up to a Fed Meeting if a rate cut is expected. Other times, they might drop after a Fed announcement, depending on how markets interpret the economic outlook. If you’re considering buying a home or are an agent for a hesitant buyer, here’s how you should navigate periods of market instability: Focus on personal goals and timing, rather than trying to time the market. Work with a knowledgeable mortgage professional who can explain how market shifts impact your unique situation. Make informed decisions based on the bigger picture, not just headlines. Whether you're buying, selling, or considering a refinance, UMortgage Loan Originators are here to help you navigate the market with confidence and leverage homeownership to build wealth. If you’re curious about your homebuying or refinance options and want expert guidance, fill out this form to get connected with a UMortgage Loan Originator in your area!