Housing Market Update | Week of September 8th
Published: September 8, 2025
Updated: September 8, 2025

Housing Market Update | Week of September 8th

Mortgage rates dropped to a new yearly low after last week’s jobs data highlighted a terrible current state of the labor market. Total nonfarm payroll employment was just 22,000 in August, significantly lower than estimates of +75,000. Overall, job growth has stalled since April. This data all but confirmed that the Fed should cut rates during its September meeting next week.
Once these job numbers came in, the 10-year yield plummeted; it peaked last week at 4.3% and has since dropped all the way to 4.05% as of this morning. This took the mortgage rate to a new yearly low with room to fall further. We have our PPI and CPI inflation reports coming this week. So long as inflation doesn’t rise out of control, we could see rates inch closer to 6%.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap
Rates Dropped
Mortgage rates plummeted on Friday after the BLS jobs report came in significantly lower than expected. The headline figure of 22,000 jobs created in August was significantly lower than expectations and brought the unemployment rate up to 4.3%. Not only that, but June’s job figures were also revised lower to a negative number, breaking a 54-month streak of job gains reported by the BLS.
The average duration of unemployment rose to 24.5 weeks, which is the highest since April 2022 and suggests that people are having a hard time finding a job once they’re unemployed. The Federal Reserve has long suggested that, to justify a rate cut, the labor market would have to weaken significantly.
The jobs data since April has shown little to no growth, which has led most economists to expect at least a 0.25% cut to the federal funds rate next week and between 2 and 3 rate cuts between now and the end of the year.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast
Rates Have Room to Drop More
This week has two primary focuses: the market’s continued reaction to last week’s labor data and a fresh batch of inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. With inflation continuing to highlight the impact of tariffs on the economy, the Fed will keep an eye on these figures.
Unless inflation rises out of control, though, these figures shouldn’t have much of an impact on rates. Currently, economists expect core CPI and core PPI to each rise by 0.3%.
Now more than ever, your buyers are likely wondering what these headlines mean for them. It’s important to note that mortgage rates usually drop before the Fed cuts rates and tend to rise slightly after the rate cut is official. If you have any questions about the market or want to connect any of your buyers with a UMortgage Loan Originator, follow this link to connect with an expert near you!