Housing Market Update | Week of May 12th
Published: May 12, 2025
Updated: May 12, 2025

Housing Market Update | Week of May 12th

Mortgage rates are slightly higher to start the week as the markets digest the news that the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily lower tariffs for 90 days. This news saw 10-year treasury yields and the stock market spike at the opening bell.
This week ahead has a ton of new economic data that will show how inflation has responded to the early days of the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs. The two biggest reports are Tuesday’s CPI inflation report and Thursday’s PPI inflation report. We’ll also hear from a handful of Fed members, including a speech from Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap
Rates Were Steady
Last week’s Fed Meeting went just as expected as the Fed opted to keep the Federal Funds Rate unchanged for the 3rd consecutive meeting this year. What the markets were really watching last week was less of the Fed’s rate decision and more Powell’s post-meeting press conference, where economists hoped to get insight into the Fed’s approach to what appears to be a weakening economy.
When pressed about the lack of Fed action despite data showing signs of economic slowdown, Powell said, “It's an economy that's been resilient and is in good shape… We're going to be watching the data. The data may move quickly or slowly, but we do think we're in a good position where we are to let things evolve and become clearer in terms of what should be the monetary policy response.”

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast
Rates Could Move
A busy week for market-moving data started in the early hours this morning as the U.S. and China announced a temporary cut to tariffs for 90 days, with U.S. imports to China reduced to 10% and Chinese imports to the U.S. reduced to 30%. Markets will fluctuate as more details emerge and other reports are released. Here are the major reports we’re keeping an eye on:
- Tuesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report; NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
- Wednesday: Fed Speeches – Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
- Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report; weekly initial jobless claims; U.S. retail sales; Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speech
As rates fluctuate and our clients become wary, it’s important to remember that our job isn’t to convince people to buy or sell if they’re not ready. It’s to educate them so they feel confident when the time is right. My strategy has been to cut through the noise by breaking down the simple finances of this market.
When rates are relatively elevated, like they are now, you typically see sellers list homes for less or reduce the asking price the longer a home sits on the market. As rates drop and more buyers flock to the market, home prices increase due to a higher volume of offers and lower inventory.
So, while lower rates could help drop their monthly payment, home prices keep going up. When buyers see this, they can decide if now or later makes more sense for their situation.
As the week progresses, make sure to stay in touch with your UMortgage Loan Originator for updates after certain reports are released or headlines are published.