Housing Market Update | Week of September 15th
Published: September 15, 2025
Updated: September 15, 2025

Housing Market Update | Week of September 15th

We have a massive week ahead with the Federal Reserve expected to cut the federal funds rate on Wednesday. This expected 0.25% cut has already been priced into the markets, with the 10-year down roughly 0.3% since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested a rate cut during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 22nd.
What makes this week so pivotal isn’t the rate cut itself; it’s more about Powell’s rhetoric regarding additional rate cuts during the final two Fed meetings of the year in October and December.
Over the past few years, the Fed has maintained a moderately restrictive policy stance to curb inflation, considering the health of the labor market. However, since the start of summer, U.S. job growth has come to a halt. If this weaker labor data prompts the Fed to become more dovish, rates could decline. More likely, if Powell says they’re waiting for more data to drive future decisions, we could see rates bounce slightly higher.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap
Rates Dropped
Last week's inflation data was the final hurdle the market needed to confirm a rate cut during this week's Fed Meeting. Our Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both came in at 0.3% month-over-month, exactly in line with economists' expectations.
Although inflation is going up, it's currently not spiraling higher. Tariffs remain a wildcard because of their potential to contribute to rising inflation, but the Fed has stated in the past that tariffs often cause one-time price increases instead of long-term inflation. With tariffs on different countries going into effect at different times, last week’s data didn’t raise any red flags with the Fed, all but guaranteeing this week’s anticipated cut.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast
Rates Could Be Volatile
The Fed is expected to cut rates this week, but the market’s reaction may not be as straightforward as many assume. During last year's September Fed Meeting, the Fed cut rates by 0.50%. After the cut, though, bond yields increased. This is because the overall economic data showed signs of improvement, pushing the 10-year and mortgage rates higher.
This year, the backdrop is a little different. The labor market has softened, and overall economic data isn’t as strong. That means the risk of mortgage rates spiking after the Fed cut is lower than it was in 2024. However, much of this week’s rate cut is already priced into today’s mortgage rates.
Powell's rhetoric during his post-meeting press conference on Wednesday will reveal whether the Fed will maintain its hawkish economic stance or adopt a more dovish approach. From a data standpoint, if the labor data shows improvement, yields could climb and take mortgage rates higher. On the flip side, if the labor data continues to weaken, rates may hold steady or even drop further.
This is a pivotal week for the housing market. It’s important to note that mortgage rates usually drop before the Fed cuts rates and tend to rise slightly after the rate cut is official. If you have any questions about the market or want to connect any of your buyers with a UMortgage Loan Originator, follow this link to connect with an expert near you!