Housing Market Update | Week of July 28th
Published: July 28, 2025
Updated: July 28, 2025

Housing Market Update | Week of July 28th

Despite what headlines make you want to believe, mortgage rates have been largely steady for the last 3 months. With a whirlwind week ahead that includes our four major monthly labor reports, the July Federal Reserve Meeting, and the Fed’s favorite inflation report, could we finally see rates drop?
We’re not expecting the Fed to cut rates, but the right labor and inflation data could bring mortgage rates closer to 6%. To get there, we need to see inflation either remain flat or decline, and labor data continue to soften.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap
Rates Were Steady
Mortgage rates didn’t budge throughout an ultimately quiet week last week. On Thursday, President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and spoke to the media with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. After publicly suggesting he would try to fire Powell before the Fed Chair’s term ends in May 2026, Trump struck a more amicable figure when meeting with Powell and even dismissed any notion that he would continue to try to fire Powell.
Nothing has been made official yet, but it was also reported that several trade deals have been struck between the U.S. and its trade partners. Frameworks for trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, and the European Union were the biggest highlights of the week, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to spike when markets opened this morning.
The biggest deal yet to be agreed is between the U.S. and China. Negotiations are ongoing in Sweden this week, and the August 12 deadline is likely to be extended to allow a trade agreement to be reached.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast
Rates Could Be Volatile
This week ahead could get dramatic. We have four labor reports sprinkled throughout the week, the July Fed Meeting on Wednesday, and the PCE inflation report on Thursday. Here’s a quick breakdown of what’s to come this week:
- Tuesday, July 29: Job Openings, Losses, and Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
- Wednesday, July 30: ADP Employment Report; Federal Reserve Meeting; U.S. GDP
- Thursday, July 31: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE); Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- Friday, August 1: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Jobs Report
As we mentioned earlier, it’s extremely unlikely that the Fed will cut rates despite increased pressure from the President. The markets closely watch Powell’s press conference afterwards, so his comments could cause some movement.
This week’s labor and inflation reports will hold much more weight for rate movements. PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation report, and early predictions expect it to increase by 0.2% or 0.3% in Thursday’s report.
As for the labor market, Initial Jobless Claims have dropped every week since the start of June, meaning that fewer people are making their first claim for unemployment assistance. To cut rates, the Fed needs to see the labor market weaken. That means we’ll want these four reports to come in lower than expectations for rates to drop.
There's a lot going on this week, so if you have any questions regarding rates or specific products for any of your buyers, make sure to stay in touch with your UMortgage Loan Originator for timely updates and expert insight!