Housing Market Update | Week of April 14th

Last week was yet another wild ride for the U.S. economy as headlines about tariffs sent the 10-year to 4.4% and made mortgage rates bounce slightly higher heading into the weekend. These rapid movements are squarely tied to tariffs: both the unexpected 90-day pause just one week after tariffs were implemented on the U.S.’s trade partners and the reciprocal tariffs China imposed on the U.S. We have more uncertainty on the menu for the week ahead. There’s no major economic data—although, as the last two weeks have shown us, labor and inflation data aren’t impacting the markets like they usually do. What we’ll want to keep an eye on are the multiple Fed Presidents speaking throughout the week. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Rose Mortgage rates started the week this week slightly higher than they were last Monday after a volatile week for rates last week. The 10-year and mortgage rates both trickled lower to start the week, but after President Trump announced that all tariffs (except those imposed on China) would be paused for 90 days, the stock market heated back up and sent the 10-year and mortgage rates higher. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could be Volatile This week could be more of the same. As the last two weeks have shown, the markets react more to headlines about tariffs and stock/bond market activity than monthly economic data. Just like we saw with the labor data two weeks ago, CPI and PPI inflation figures came in lower than expectations last week and hardly impacted rates. The lack of economic data would normally mean a slow week ahead. However, we could have another roller coaster week ahead with a handful of Fed Presidents speaking throughout the week—including a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. As the week rolls on, don’t hesitate to reach out to me directly for real-time updates as the market moves. The last couple of weeks have shown us that economic uncertainty is causing a lot of market volatility. Until we see more stability, things could change day-to-day or even hour-to-hour. It’s important to keep your clients aware of these movements to help them act when the moment is right. Make sure to stay in touch with your UMortgage Loan Originator for updates throughout the week as things develop.

Last week was a wild one for mortgage rates. Although the Federal Reserve announced that they would not be cutting the Federal Funds rate in their May meeting, they did announce that they are tapering their balance sheet reduction. This, combined with weak labor data sprinkled at the end of the week, saw mortgage rates drop at the end of the week. Last Week's Rate Recap: Rates Dropped Slightly Last week, the Federal Reserve held its May meeting. While they decided against cutting rates, Jerome Powell, Fed Chairman, held a dovish stance on the possibility of rate cuts in the future. Last week’s labor reports also showed a softening in the jobs market which caused rates to drop quickly at the end of the week. While it’s still unlikely that we see a rate cut in the Fed’s next meeting, a weakened labor market will be the key to seeing rates drop as the year goes on. This Week's Rate Forecast: Rates Should Stay Steady After the flurry of data and insight from last week’s jobs reports and the Federal Reserve meeting, we have a quieter week ahead without much data for the market to digest. Following a steep drop to the 10-year yield at the end of the week, market analysts will have a careful approach to instill some stability throughout the week. Overall, we should expect to see some steadiness throughout the week. If you want a more comprehensive overview of the market’s reaction to the Federal Reserve meeting and labor data last week, check out a replay of today’s Special-Edition Monday Market Update. Our two hosts offered plenty of insight behind these rate movements and some tactical advice to help you use these pieces of market data to better serve our homebuyers.