Housing Market Update | Week of October 27th
Published: October 27, 2025
Updated: October 27, 2025

Housing Market Update | Week of October 27th

The Federal Reserve is holding its October Meeting this week, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expected to announce a second consecutive 0.25% cut to the federal funds rate during his post-meeting press conference this Wednesday. This cut is expected despite a lack of the usual economic data we receive in the cycle leading up to a Fed Meeting.
Last Friday, we got our first piece of economic data this month in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was released for the Social Security Administration’s cost-of-living adjustments. It showed that inflation increased by 0.3% in September, bringing the inflation rate to 3%, but it was still below economists’ forecast and allowed rates to drop slightly heading into the weekend.

Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap
Rates Dropped Slightly
The biggest piece of news last week was the release of the September CPI reading. This report typically has little influence on the market, as the Fed prefers the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to measure inflation.
However, the lack of other data put increased importance on this report. Economists forecasted a 0.4% increase in September, but the reading came in slightly cooler at 0.3%. That brings year-over-year inflation to 3%, which is higher than the Fed wants, but isn’t quite rising out of control. This helped rates drop slightly heading into the weekend.

This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast
Rates Could Be Volatile
It’s Fed week, and it’s widely expected that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% for the second consecutive meeting. We’ve seen the market confirm this expectation with the 10-year dropping from ~4.25% to 3.95% over the course of the month. Because of the government shutdown, markets are currently driven by expectations rather than actual data, which can increase volatility if those expectations aren’t met.
Because of this, eyes and ears will be on Powell’s post-meeting press conference scheduled for Wednesday at 2:30pm ET. Typically, when the 10-year has dropped below 4%, Powell has given more hawkish statements. Add the caveat of the lack of economic data, don’t be surprised if mortgage rates bounce slightly higher after this week’s Fed meeting.
If you have any questions or would like updates after this week's Fed decision, follow this link to connect with a mortgage expert near you!
