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Housing Market Update | Week of August 25th

Mortgage rates reached a new yearly low on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that recent labor data could force the Fed to adjust its monetary policy and cut rates. This statement sprang economists into action as the 10-year treasury yield dropped sharply and took mortgage rates lower on Friday afternoon. It’s important to note that mortgage rates dropping like this is the market preemptively pricing in a Fed rate cut. We likely have some buyers who want to wait to act until after a potential cut, but they could be missing out on the lowest rate if they do so. We saw the same thing happen last September; Powell hinted that the Fed would cut in his 2024 speech at Jackson Hole, rates dropped, then after the cut, rates bounced higher. If you’re trying to convince buyers to act now instead of waiting for the actual rate cut, feel free to share this blog to explain the market trends surrounding Fed rate cuts. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Dropped Economists waited with bated breath last week, awaiting any hint of a rate cut by Fed officials, especially Powell, during the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Early in Powell’s speech on Friday, they got what they hoped for. Powell emphasized that the rapid slowdown in job growth presents a significant risk to the labor market and could seriously harm the economy through higher layoffs and rising unemployment. Regarding inflation and tariffs, he believes tariffs would cause a one-time shift in prices rather than long-term inflation. He explained that this short-term price increase wouldn’t happen all at once but would gradually occur as tariffs are implemented at different times. More economic data will emerge before the Fed’s September meeting, starting with a PCE inflation report this week. Currently, all signs point to a 0.25% cut on September 17th. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Move on Friday The biggest news this week is Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report. As we’ve noted before, this is the Fed’s favorite way to measure inflation. Core PCE is currently expected to rise 0.3%; if that happens and inflation doesn’t get out of control, we could see rates continue to decline. Powell has said that the health of the labor market influences the Fed’s monetary policy more than inflation does. The Fed still has a dual mandate to lower inflation and reduce unemployment, but revisions to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) jobs reports in May and June pose a bigger risk to the economy’s health. If the next Jobs Report on September 5th shows a big increase in job growth, the Fed might shift its focus back to inflation. But right now, this summer’s labor data could trigger our first rate cut of 2025. Now more than ever, your buyers are likely wondering what these headlines mean for them. It’s important to note that mortgage rates usually drop before the Fed cuts rates and tend to rise slightly after the rate cut is official. If you have any questions about the market or want to connect any of your buyers with a UMortgage Loan Originator, follow this link to connect with an expert near you!

Published August 25, 2025

Market UpdateMortgage

How the Federal Reserve Impacts Mortgage Rates (And How It Doesn't)

If you’ve been watching the news lately, you’ve probably seen a lot of headlines about the Federal Reserve and interest rates. And if you're a homebuyer or a real estate agent working with buyers, you might wonder: Does the Federal Reserve control mortgage rates? It’s a great question. And the short answer is: Not necessarily. The longer answer is a bit more nuanced because while the Fed does play an important role in the economy, it doesn't directly control mortgage rates. What Is the Federal Reserve and the Federal Funds Rate? The Federal Reserve, often referred to simply as the Fed, is the central bank of the United States. Its primary job is to keep the economy healthy by keeping inflation in check, supporting the labor economy, and promoting stable & sustainable economic growth. One of the main tools the Fed uses to manage the economy is the Federal Funds Rate. This is the interest rate banks charge one another for overnight loans. While consumers don’t pay this rate directly, it has a ripple effect across the economy, influencing rates on credit cards, auto loans, and savings accounts. How the Federal Funds Rate Influences the Economy When the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate, it becomes more expensive for banks to borrow money. That tends to result in higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in an attempt to slow down inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. When the Fed lowers the rate, borrowing becomes cheaper. This encourages more spending and investment, often a strategy used during economic slowdowns or recessions. Important distinction: The Federal Funds Rate influences the economy, but it does not directly control mortgage rates. Why Mortgage Rates Don’t Always Follow the Fed Here’s where a lot of confusion begins. Many people assume that when the Fed raises interest rates, mortgage rates automatically rise too. But that’s not how it works. Mortgage rates are driven by a different set of economic factors, mainly the bond market. Specifically, rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield and the performance of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Investors who buy these securities care most about the labor market, inflation, the long-term economic outlook, and market stability/instability If inflation is rising or expected to rise, mortgage rates tend to increase. If economic conditions appear weak or uncertain, rates can fall, even if the Fed is raising the Federal Funds Rate. In fact, mortgage rates often move in anticipation of what the Fed might do, not just in response to what it has done. The markets are always looking ahead. What Really Drives Mortgage Rates? Here’s a quick snapshot of the major factors that impact mortgage rates: Inflation: Higher inflation usually = higher mortgage rates. Economic Growth: A strong economy can lead to higher rates. Global Events: Uncertainty (like geopolitical conflict or pandemics) can drive rates lower. Bond Market Demand: More demand for mortgage bonds often = lower mortgage rates. In other words, mortgage rates are influenced by a wide range of factors and are always forward-looking. Want more in-depth analysis of the housing market? Check out our weekly Housing Market Update blog. How Homebuyers and Real Estate Can Navigate the Market For homebuyers and the real estate agents supporting them, the key takeaway is this: Don’t assume that a Fed rate cut means mortgage rates are going down. In some cases, mortgage rates don’t move much on the day that the Fed cuts rates. Most of the time, they will drop in the lead-up to a Fed Meeting if a rate cut is expected. Other times, they might drop after a Fed announcement, depending on how markets interpret the economic outlook. If you’re considering buying a home or are an agent for a hesitant buyer, here’s how you should navigate periods of market instability: Focus on personal goals and timing, rather than trying to time the market. Work with a knowledgeable mortgage professional who can explain how market shifts impact your unique situation. Make informed decisions based on the bigger picture, not just headlines. Whether you're buying, selling, or considering a refinance, UMortgage Loan Originators are here to help you navigate the market with confidence and leverage homeownership to build wealth. If you’re curious about your homebuying or refinance options and want expert guidance, fill out this form to get connected with a UMortgage Loan Originator in your area!

Published August 13, 2025

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Kristy Lynn

David is absolutely wonderful! He made this entire process in getting a VA Loan as simple as it could have possibly been for my first mortgage! I have and will continue to recommend him to every Veteran I know. Thank you for everything, David.

Raymond Gummer

I had a difficult mortgage due to county issues etc. Fortunately I also had the best people working for me. You'll never regret a moment having Corey on your side. He's so dedicated to the customer, keeps you up-to-date on everything, and is just one hell of a guy. I have my first home because Corey made it happen, and I couldn't thank him enough. This guy is truly top of his game and I'm blessed to have had him on my team.

Susan Lenhardt

I can't say enough good things about Vinnie. If you want someone that contacts you right away and is there for you and your buyers the entire time through the whole process then you have to talk to Vinnie and see for yourself. My buyers are always very pleased with his professionalism and efficiency. He definitely goes the extra mile for them. They appreciate it and so do I.

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Dominique Bell

Nicole was an absolute pleasure to work with! From the first conversation we had I knew we were going to be a great team for our buyer. She is thorough and communicates each step throughout the entire process up until closing day and she got my buyer $10k in grants! Thank you Nicole for all your hard work!

Yuritt Pasos

Brian and his team are amazing. From the first time I met Brian, he took the time to explain every step of the process with great patience and knowledge. I can honestly say I never expected for this process to feel so easy but Brian made it possible. I will always be thankful for all the support provided.

Meredith Smith

My family had a fantastic experience with Sunnie! Extremely capable and supportive, she helped us through the whole process with ease and a personal touch. We can't thank her enough! Even years after we closed our home, she still provides us with advice and encouragement. Thank you Sunnie!

Miranda Adams

I went through UMortgage using a VA home loan, and the agents I worked with were amazing! They worked all hours to help us get into a house and we were able to close in under 30 days! Amazing communication from both team members involved, Melly and Andy. They really made the difference in us being able to buy our first home. Huge thank you to the UMortgage team!

Nathalie Montes

I’ve had the pleasure of working with Lisa over the past year, and I can confidently say she is one of the best lenders in the industry. Her expertise with a wide range of loan products and dedication to finding the best solutions for my clients truly set her apart. Lisa goes above and beyond to secure excellent rates while ensuring a smooth, professional, and timely process from start to finish. If you’re looking for a knowledgeable, responsive, and trustworthy lender, Lisa is the one to call! I look forward to continuing our partnership and highly recommend her to anyone in need of a top-notch mortgage expert.

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Who is UMortgage?

UMortgage is a national mortgage company that connects you with experienced mortgage brokers in your area. UMortgage's local Loan Officers use UMortgage's vast portfolio of lenders and loan products to ensure you get the most affordable mortgage possible that is tailored to your individual financial needs and homeownership goals.

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A mortgage is a loan used to buy a home, with the house serving as collateral until the loan is repaid. You make monthly payments that cover both the loan amount and interest across the life of the loan, which most commonly spans between 15-30 years.

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UMortgage's Loan Officers help you access the most affordable mortgage by shopping for the lowest rate on your behalf and offering a mortgage specifically tailored to your financial needs. UMortgage prides itself on its exceptional customer experience—exemplified by our industry-best 95 Net Promoter Score—and guides you through the homebuying process & beyond with care.

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UMortgage offers expert services for all the major mortgage types: Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, and Jumbo Loans. UMortgage also offers rate & term refinances, cash-out refinances, VA IRRRLs, and FHA Streamlines. Get connected with a UMortgage Loan Officer to learn what type of mortgage will set you up for long-term financial success.

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Turn times vary from client to client, but UMortgage proudly gets clients from loan application (after you've had an offer accepted on a home) to the closing table in 2 weeks. You can read this blog for more insight into UMortgage's homebuying process.

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