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Housing Market Update | Week of October 27th

The Federal Reserve is holding its October Meeting this week, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell expected to announce a second consecutive 0.25% cut to the federal funds rate during his post-meeting press conference this Wednesday. This cut is expected despite a lack of the usual economic data we receive in the cycle leading up to a Fed Meeting. Last Friday, we got our first piece of economic data this month in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was released for the Social Security Administration’s cost-of-living adjustments. It showed that inflation increased by 0.3% in September, bringing the inflation rate to 3%, but it was still below economists’ forecast and allowed rates to drop slightly heading into the weekend. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Dropped Slightly The biggest piece of news last week was the release of the September CPI reading. This report typically has little influence on the market, as the Fed prefers the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index to measure inflation. However, the lack of other data put increased importance on this report. Economists forecasted a 0.4% increase in September, but the reading came in slightly cooler at 0.3%. That brings year-over-year inflation to 3%, which is higher than the Fed wants, but isn’t quite rising out of control. This helped rates drop slightly heading into the weekend. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Be Volatile It’s Fed week, and it’s widely expected that the Fed will cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% for the second consecutive meeting. We’ve seen the market confirm this expectation with the 10-year dropping from ~4.25% to 3.95% over the course of the month. Because of the government shutdown, markets are currently driven by expectations rather than actual data, which can increase volatility if those expectations aren’t met. Because of this, eyes and ears will be on Powell’s post-meeting press conference scheduled for Wednesday at 2:30pm ET. Typically, when the 10-year has dropped below 4%, Powell has given more hawkish statements. Add the caveat of the lack of economic data, don’t be surprised if mortgage rates bounce slightly higher after this week’s Fed meeting. If you have any questions or would like updates after this week's Fed decision, follow this link to connect with a mortgage expert near you!

Published October 27, 2025

News

How the 2025 Government Shutdown Affects the Housing Market

On October 1st, 2025, a shutdown of the federal government began. Believe it or not, government shutdowns can have a multifaceted impact on the housing industry and mortgages. To help you be prepared and stay in the know, here’s how the mortgage process and the housing market are affected. Quick Answer Closings haven’t stopped, but some files will move more slowly. FHA and VA are largely operating (with some limits), conventional loans continue to move under GSE guidance, USDA loans for new approvals are paused, and a lapse in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) can block some flood-zone closings. Key economic reports are delayed, which can make mortgage rates prone to increased volatility when the shutdown ends. How a Government Shutdown Impacts Mortgage Rates During a shutdown, we get a “data blackout” from federal statistical agencies. For example, the September BLS labor report, which is typically one of the bigger market movers, was not released as scheduled on October 3rd. Other reports have been delayed; for example, our September CPI inflation report has been pushed to October 24, 2025. With no economic data leading up to our next Fed Meeting on October 29, the markets can’t fully forecast whether the Fed will cut, which could result in fewer gradual movements and more rate swings. Loan Programs: What’s Running and What’s Slowed Non-government-backed loan programs, such as Conventional Loans, will not be impacted by the government shutdown. Specific government-backed programs, like FHA loans and VA loans, are largely unaffected, but delays may occur. This shutdown most heavily impacts USDA loans. USDA Rural Development’s Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program largely pauses new activity. If a valid conditional commitment was already issued, some closings may proceed; otherwise, new USDA approvals will wait until staff return. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) The NFIP’s authority lapsed on September 30, 2025. Existing policies remain in force until expiration, but because of the shutdown, no new or renewed NFIP policies can be issued during the lapse. This can halt closings in flood zones that require NFIP coverage until reauthorization. Underwriting & Operations Delays If you’re a federal employee or contractor affected by a furlough, your loan may still be eligible. GSE guidance allows temporary flexibilities around employment verification; some files may need extra reserves if the shutdown extends. If you’re a prospective homebuyer wondering if a government shutdown will impact your homebuying or refinance process, or a real estate agent concerned with the impact this shutdown may have on your buyers, get in touch with a UMortgage Loan Originator for expert advice. They’ll be able to tell you how to navigate the market, act proactively to avoid delays, and find alternate solutions to help you close on time or as quickly as possible.

Published October 17, 2025

News

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David is absolutely wonderful! He made this entire process in getting a VA Loan as simple as it could have possibly been for my first mortgage! I have and will continue to recommend him to every Veteran I know. Thank you for everything, David.

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Miranda Adams

I went through UMortgage using a VA home loan, and the agents I worked with were amazing! They worked all hours to help us get into a house and we were able to close in under 30 days! Amazing communication from both team members involved, Melly and Andy. They really made the difference in us being able to buy our first home. Huge thank you to the UMortgage team!

Nathalie Montes

I’ve had the pleasure of working with Lisa over the past year, and I can confidently say she is one of the best lenders in the industry. Her expertise with a wide range of loan products and dedication to finding the best solutions for my clients truly set her apart. Lisa goes above and beyond to secure excellent rates while ensuring a smooth, professional, and timely process from start to finish. If you’re looking for a knowledgeable, responsive, and trustworthy lender, Lisa is the one to call! I look forward to continuing our partnership and highly recommend her to anyone in need of a top-notch mortgage expert.

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Housing Market Update | Week of October 27th

How the 2025 Government Shutdown Affects the Housing Market