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Market Update

Housing Market Update | Week of June 2nd

Mortgage rates dropped slightly despite a wild week for economic headlines. The White House continued its full-court press on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, urging the Fed to cut rates. President Trump’s sweeping tariffs were struck down by a federal court, and the Trump administration responded with a 50% tariff on steel imports. And finally, Friday’s PCE report showed inflation cooled closer to the Fed’s 2% target in April. This week could be a major turning point. It’s jobs week, and labor market data remains front and center for rate watchers. If job creation slows or the unemployment rate climbs, we could see bond yields—and mortgage rates—move lower in response. On the flip side, strong labor reports would likely keep the Fed in wait-and-see mode. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Were Steady Last week, mortgage rates finished the week marginally lower than where they started, despite a series of big and bold economic headlines. President Trump and FHFA Chairman Bill Pulte increased their pressure on the Federal Reserve, urging Fed Chairman Powell to cut the federal funds rate. Later in the week, federal courts blocked President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, ruling that the tariffs violated the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump’s administration pushed back with a 50% tariff against steel imports on Friday night and is expected to appeal the ruling blocking its widespread tariffs. In terms of raw economic data, Friday’s PCE inflation report (the Fed’s favorite inflation report) showed that headline inflation dropped to 2.1% year-over-year in Friday’s report. We’re getting incredibly close to the Fed’s targeted ‘soft landing’ at 2%, but it will likely still look for a weaker labor market to be more aggressive with its monetary policy. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Be Volatile If a weaker labor market is what the Fed is looking for to cut rates, this week could hold all the cards. It’s jobs week, which means we have a different labor report every day this week, wrapping with the headline Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Report on Friday. Here’s what the week looks like at a glance: Tuesday: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey Wednesday: ADP Employment Report Thursday: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Friday: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Report Currently, markets predict the U.S. unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 4.2% on Friday and for there to be 125,000 jobs created in May—a sharp downturn from April’s 177,000 jobs created. These labor figures are certain to shift rates, especially if increased weakness in the labor market persists. We’ll also hear from a handful of Fed members throughout the week; any hint of a rate cut during its June 18 meeting could also spark bond market activity and shift mortgage rates. As the week progresses, make sure to stay in touch with your UMortgage Loan Originator for real-time market updates.

Published June 2, 2025

Blog Post
Market UpdateMortgage

How the Federal Reserve Impacts Mortgage Rates (And How It Doesn't)

If you’ve been watching the news lately, you’ve probably seen a lot of headlines about the Federal Reserve and interest rates. And if you're a homebuyer or a real estate agent working with buyers, you might wonder: Does the Federal Reserve control mortgage rates? It’s a great question. And the short answer is: Not necessarily. The longer answer is a bit more nuanced because while the Fed does play an important role in the economy, it doesn't directly control mortgage rates. What Is the Federal Reserve and the Federal Funds Rate? The Federal Reserve—often referred to simply as the Fed—is the central bank of the United States. Its primary job is to keep the economy healthy by keeping inflation in check, supporting the labor economy, and promoting stable & sustainable economic growth. One of the main tools the Fed uses to manage the economy is the Federal Funds Rate. This is the interest rate banks charge one another for overnight loans. While consumers don’t pay this rate directly, it has a ripple effect across the economy, influencing rates on credit cards, auto loans, and savings accounts. How the Federal Funds Rate Influences the Economy When the Fed raises the Federal Funds Rate, it becomes more expensive for banks to borrow money. That tends to result in higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses in an attempt to slow down inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. When the Fed lowers the rate, borrowing becomes cheaper. This encourages more spending and investment, often a strategy used during economic slowdowns or recessions. Important distinction: The Federal Funds Rate influences the economy, but it does not directly control mortgage rates. Why Mortgage Rates Don’t Always Follow the Fed Here’s where a lot of confusion begins. Many people assume that when the Fed raises interest rates, mortgage rates automatically rise too. But that’s not how it works. Mortgage rates are driven by a different set of economic factors, mainly the bond market. Specifically, rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield and the performance of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Investors who buy these securities care most about the labor market, inflation, the long-term economic outlook, and market stability/instability If inflation is rising or expected to rise, mortgage rates tend to increase. If economic conditions appear weak or uncertain, rates can fall, even if the Fed is raising the Federal Funds Rate. In fact, mortgage rates often move in anticipation of what the Fed might do, not just in response to what it has done. The markets are always looking ahead. What Really Drives Mortgage Rates? Here’s a quick snapshot of the major factors that impact mortgage rates: Inflation: Higher inflation usually = higher mortgage rates. Economic Growth: A strong economy can lead to higher rates. Global Events: Uncertainty (like geopolitical conflict or pandemics) can drive rates lower. Bond Market Demand: More demand for mortgage bonds often = lower mortgage rates. In other words, mortgage rates are influenced by a wide range of factors and are always forward-looking. Want more in-depth analysis of the housing market? Check out our weekly Housing Market Update blog. How Homebuyers and Real Estate Can Navigate the Market For homebuyers and the real estate agents supporting them, the key takeaway is this: Don’t assume that a Fed rate cut means mortgage rates are going down. In some cases, mortgage rates don’t move much on the day that the Fed cuts rates. Most of the time, they will drop in the lead-up to a Fed Meeting if a rate cut is expected. Other times, they might drop after a Fed announcement, depending on how markets interpret the economic outlook. If you’re considering buying a home or are an agent for a hesitant buyer, here’s how you should navigate periods of market instability: Focus on personal goals and timing, rather than trying to time the market. Work with a knowledgeable mortgage professional who can explain how market shifts impact your unique situation. Make informed decisions based on the bigger picture, not just headlines. Whether you're buying, selling, or considering a refinance, UMortgage Loan Originators are here to help you navigate the market with confidence and leverage homeownership to build wealth. If you’re curious about your homebuying or refinance options and want expert guidance, fill out this form to get connected with a UMortgage Loan Originator in your area!

Published May 30, 2025

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Experience is
Everything.

If an industry leading 95 Net Promoter Score isn't enough, take it from borrowers that have worked with us.

Kristy Lynn
K

Kristy Lynn

David is absolutely wonderful! He made this entire process in getting a VA Loan as simple as it could have possibly been for my first mortgage! I have and will continue to recommend him to every Veteran I know. Thank you for everything, David.

Jodi Granger
Jodi Granger

Jodi Granger

Vinnie was recommended to me and I'm so thrilled I got to work with him. He led me every step of the way going above and beyond. He answered every question I had and always responded quickly regardless of the time. If I ever buy again he is my number 1 go to. I couldn't have done it without him. I own the place of my dreams because of him! Thank you, Vinnie for everything!

Raymond Gummer
Raymond Gummer

Raymond Gummer

I had a difficult mortgage due to county issues etc. Fortunately I also had the best people working for me. You'll never regret a moment having Corey on your side. He's so dedicated to the customer, keeps you up-to-date on everything, and is just one hell of a guy. I have my first home because Corey made it happen, and I couldn't thank him enough. This guy is truly top of his game and I'm blessed to have had him on my team.

Susan Lenhardt
S

Susan Lenhardt

I can't say enough good things about Vinnie. If you want someone that contacts you right away and is there for you and your buyers the entire time through the whole process then you have to talk to Vinnie and see for yourself. My buyers are always very pleased with his professionalism and efficiency. He definitely goes the extra mile for them. They appreciate it and so do I.

Dominique Bell
Dominique Bell

Dominique Bell

Nicole was an absolute pleasure to work with! From the first conversation we had I knew we were going to be a great team for our buyer. She is thorough and communicates each step throughout the entire process up until closing day and she got my buyer $10k in grants! Thank you Nicole for all your hard work!

Yuritt Pasos
Yuritt Pasos

Yuritt Pasos

Brian and his team are amazing. From the first time I met Brian, he took the time to explain every step of the process with great patience and knowledge. I can honestly say I never expected for this process to feel so easy but Brian made it possible. I will always be thankful for all the support provided.

Meredith Smith
Meredith Smith

Meredith Smith

My family had a fantastic experience with Sunnie! Extremely capable and supportive, she helped us through the whole process with ease and a personal touch. We can't thank her enough! Even years after we closed our home, she still provides us with advice and encouragement. Thank you Sunnie!

Miranda Adams
Miranda Adams

Miranda Adams

I went through UMortgage using a VA home loan, and the agents I worked with were amazing! They worked all hours to help us get into a house and we were able to close in under 30 days! Amazing communication from both team members involved, Melly and Andy. They really made the difference in us being able to buy our first home. Huge thank you to the UMortgage team!

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Who is UMortgage?

UMortgage is a national mortgage company that connects you with experienced mortgage brokers in your area. UMortgage's local Loan Officers use UMortgage's vast portfolio of lenders and loan products to ensure you get the most affordable mortgage possible that is tailored to your individual financial needs and homeownership goals.

How does a mortgage work?

A mortgage is a loan used to buy a home, with the house serving as collateral until the loan is repaid. You make monthly payments that cover both the loan amount and interest across the life of the loan, which most commonly spans between 15-30 years.

How do I get pre-approved?

Getting pre-approved with UMortgage is easy! You can get connected with a local UMortgage Loan Officer who will do all the heavy lifting for you by filling out some basic information in this form.

How do I find out how much I can spend on a home?

Your UMortgage pre-approval will provide you with an accurate estimate of your buying power to help you shop for homes within your budget. You can use our free affordability calculator for a more general estimate of your budget.

What are the benefits of working with a UMortgage Loan Officer?

UMortgage's Loan Officers help you access the most affordable mortgage by shopping for the lowest rate on your behalf and offering a mortgage specifically tailored to your financial needs. UMortgage prides itself on its exceptional customer experience—exemplified by our industry-best 95 Net Promoter Score—and guides you through the homebuying process & beyond with care.

What types of mortgages does UMortgage offer?

UMortgage offers expert services for all the major mortgage types: Conventional, FHA, VA, USDA, and Jumbo Loans. UMortgage also offers rate & term refinances, cash-out refinances, VA IRRRLs, and FHA Streamlines. Get connected with a UMortgage Loan Officer to learn what type of mortgage will set you up for long-term financial success.

How long does it take to get a mortgage with UMortgage?

Turn times vary from client to client, but UMortgage proudly gets clients from loan application (after you've had an offer accepted on a home) to the closing table in 2 weeks. You can read this blog for more insight into UMortgage's homebuying process.

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