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Housing Market Update | Week of October 20th

Last Thursday, the 10-year Treasury yield closed below 4% for the first time this year. The Federal Reserve hosts its October Fed Meeting next week and markets expect another 0.25% cut, just like the Fed did in September. However, because of the government shutdown, we haven’t gotten any of the usual economic data that helps markets accurately forecast potential Fed rate cuts. That changes this week. This Friday, we’ll get our September Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was originally scheduled to be released last week. Economists expect the report to show inflation increase by 0.4%. This report typically doesn’t move the needle much for mortgage rates, but rising inflation is always a concern for the Fed and its monetary policy. How this affects the decision to cut the fed funds rate next week is unclear but prepare for potential volatility on Friday just in case. Last Week's Mortgage Rate Recap Rates Dropped Slightly The second full week of the government shutdown once again prevented the release of any market-moving economic data. We did see the 10-year yield close below 4% for the first time this year, and as of this morning, it continues to sit around 3.99%. The reason the 10-year continued to dip is due to traders seeking safer returns with stocks struggling after declines in bank shares, trade tensions with China, and the ongoing government shutdown. This Week's Mortgage Rate Forecast Rates Could Be Volatile Economic data is back on the table this week with the release of our CPI inflation report coming on Friday morning. Economists forecast September CPI to come in somewhere between 0.3% and 0.4%, which would cause year-over-year inflation to increase from 2.9% to 3%. Although CPI doesn’t typically move the markets too much, it would be best to prepare our clients for potential volatility on Friday. The other factor that could impact mortgage rates this week would be the end of the government shutdown. Several key reports, including our pivotal BLS jobs report, have been held back due to the shutdown. When government employees return to work, these reports will be released soon after. Based on private payroll data from ADP, economists expect this BLS report to highlight a continually weakening labor market. If all those dominoes fall, rates could drop as well. Read this blog for more on the government shutdown’s impact on the housing market and mortgage process. If you have any questions or would like updates as we receive new developments on the government shutdown, follow this link to connect with a mortgage expert near you!

Published October 20, 2025

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How the 2025 Government Shutdown Affects the Housing Market

On October 1st, 2025, a shutdown of the federal government began. Believe it or not, government shutdowns can have a multifaceted impact on the housing industry and mortgages. To help you be prepared and stay in the know, here’s how the mortgage process and the housing market are affected. Quick Answer Closings haven’t stopped, but some files will move more slowly. FHA and VA are largely operating (with some limits), conventional loans continue to move under GSE guidance, USDA loans for new approvals are paused, and a lapse in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) can block some flood-zone closings. Key economic reports are delayed, which can make mortgage rates prone to increased volatility when the shutdown ends. How a Government Shutdown Impacts Mortgage Rates During a shutdown, we get a “data blackout” from federal statistical agencies. For example, the September BLS labor report, which is typically one of the bigger market movers, was not released as scheduled on October 3rd. Other reports have been delayed; for example, our September CPI inflation report has been pushed to October 24, 2025. With no economic data leading up to our next Fed Meeting on October 29, the markets can’t fully forecast whether the Fed will cut, which could result in fewer gradual movements and more rate swings. Loan Programs: What’s Running and What’s Slowed Non-government-backed loan programs, such as Conventional Loans, will not be impacted by the government shutdown. Specific government-backed programs, like FHA loans and VA loans, are largely unaffected, but delays may occur. This shutdown most heavily impacts USDA loans. USDA Rural Development’s Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program largely pauses new activity. If a valid conditional commitment was already issued, some closings may proceed; otherwise, new USDA approvals will wait until staff return. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) The NFIP’s authority lapsed on September 30, 2025. Existing policies remain in force until expiration, but because of the shutdown, no new or renewed NFIP policies can be issued during the lapse. This can halt closings in flood zones that require NFIP coverage until reauthorization. Underwriting & Operations Delays If you’re a federal employee or contractor affected by a furlough, your loan may still be eligible. GSE guidance allows temporary flexibilities around employment verification; some files may need extra reserves if the shutdown extends. If you’re a prospective homebuyer wondering if a government shutdown will impact your homebuying or refinance process, or a real estate agent concerned with the impact this shutdown may have on your buyers, get in touch with a UMortgage Loan Originator for expert advice. They’ll be able to tell you how to navigate the market, act proactively to avoid delays, and find alternate solutions to help you close on time or as quickly as possible.

Published October 17, 2025

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I went through UMortgage using a VA home loan, and the agents I worked with were amazing! They worked all hours to help us get into a house and we were able to close in under 30 days! Amazing communication from both team members involved, Melly and Andy. They really made the difference in us being able to buy our first home. Huge thank you to the UMortgage team!

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Housing Market Update | Week of October 20th

How the 2025 Government Shutdown Affects the Housing Market